Omicron by the numbers: Where things stand now

For the final 4 days, New York has posted all-time report case numbers of Covid-19. On Monday, the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention launched a brand new forecast that estimates that the Omicron variant is already the dominant variant within the U.S. In the meantime, instances have been climbing within the Northeast and Midwest for the final a number of weeks. The nation’s Delta wave isn’t over and an Omicron wave has simply begun. Right here’s the place issues stand.

Omicron has most likely overtaken Delta

On Monday night, the CDC posted updated variant surveillance data to its website that included what are known as “Nowcast” estimates of variant proportions. These estimates point out that the Omicron variant grew to become the commonest variant within the nation by the tip of final week.

You will need to notice that the numbers for the final two weeks are forecasts based mostly on fashions and these numbers include pretty giant error margins. As is all the time the case with any sort of forecast, the true numbers that are available over the following few weeks will differ from these estimates.

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Nonetheless, evaluating these forecasts with the restricted real-world data collected so far in international locations the place Omicron was found earlier reveals that the CDC estimates are at the least comparable.

Instances are on the rise

Broadly talking, there are two completely different rising tales in new case information. Here’s a warmth map visualizing the historical past of the pandemic up to now. Every row is one state or territory (plus New York Metropolis). Every block represents a two-week chunk of time. The colour represents what number of new instances had been reported over two weeks in that space. On the high is the nationwide complete. The rows are sorted by geography, roughly west to east, to make regional traits simpler to see.

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Taking a look at instances this fashion makes it simpler to see the place completely different waves occurred and the way they unfold and different over time. On the proper is the latest information; they present that instances have been on the rise for a number of weeks now in New England and in components of the Midwest. These will increase considerably predate the invention of the Omicron variant and so are possible pushed by Delta.

In the meantime, within the final two weeks there was a pointy improve in instances in and round New York, possible pushed by Omicron. The pace of those will increase has been gorgeous. Instances in New York at the moment are accelerating quicker than at any level for the reason that begin of the pandemic.

For context, this type of case acceleration is corresponding to the peaks set by states like Louisiana and Florida after they had been exhausting hit by the Delta wave in late summer season/early fall.

Since August of this yr there was a fairly secure relationship between case charges and vaccination charges, with essentially the most extremely vaccinated states tending to have the bottom new case counts. Beginning in December this correlation has grow to be a lot weaker.

This may occasionally replicate waning immunity from older vaccinations, rising unfold of the Omicron variant, or maybe merely vaccine information assortment issues. Importantly, the definition of “absolutely vaccinated” used right here doesn’t embrace booster pictures, which are recognized to be essential in sustaining efficient immunity towards Omicron.

Hospitalizations are rising, however not as rapidly (up to now)

Much like the visualization above, right here is the historical past of hospitalization charges by state or territory since final fall.

What’s promising right here, at the least up to now, is that latest will increase in hospitalization charges, particularly within the Northeast, have been extra modest than corresponding case will increase. You will need to notice right here that hospitalizations are likely to lag behind new case experiences, so this image might change.

It could possibly be the case that top vaccination charges within the Northeast could also be contributing to decrease charges of hospitalizations, which is according to information exhibiting that hospitalizations are a lot greater nationwide for the unvaccinated.